A Warm Light

Originally published in the Informanté newspaper on Thursday, 1 March, 2018.

While our neighbouring countries have had a renaissance in political leadership, and we’ve seen how they are going to be tackling their problems going forward, we ourselves are still waiting on Minister Schlettwein’s Budget speech to see where we will head in the coming year. While we wait, it should perhaps behove us to examine where everyone else seems to be headed. As usual, the World Economic Studies Division of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC can help us on that front. During January, they release an update to their World Economic Outlook to give us a glimpse into what might lie ahead.

So what does the January 2018 report reveal? Well, global economic activity continues to firm up, with 2017 growth expected to be 3.7%, up by 0.1% since their last report in October. As a result, growth for 2018 has been adjusted 0.2% upwards, to 3.9%. This is as a result of increased growth momentum, and also the expected impact of US tax policy changes. In addition, global trade has grown strongly in the last few months amongst the advanced economies, with increased manufacturing output seen from Asia as new smartphones are released. The forecast, of course, expects that favourable global financial conditions and market sentiment will maintain the growth in demand going forward. 

So let’s dig a bit deeper into the details, starting with the so-termed ‘Advanced Economies.’ In the United States, growth for 2017 was revised upward to 2.3% due to higher demand and the expected impact of the tax reform as it stimulates investment and domestic demand for imports. In the Euro area, growth for 2017 was also revised upwards to 2.4% for 2017 and 2.2% for 2018 reflecting their increased domestic demand as well as increased exports. However, Spain sees its forecast for 2018 adjusted downwards to 2.4% due to increased political uncertainty due to the Catalonia situation. 

In the United Kingdom, growth for 2017 is expected to remain at 1.7%, and growth for 2018 is set at 1.5 until the extent of the country’s relationship with the euro area is finalised. Japan, however, has seen its 2017 growth upgraded to 1.7% and that of 2018 to 1.2%, due to expected stronger exports, but the country’s shrinking labour force continues to curtail growth. Canada is also expected to benefit from increased demand from the United States, with growth for 2017 projected at 3%, and 2018 at 2.3%.

Now let’s have a look at the Emerging Market Economies. First amongst these is of course China, with growth of 6.8% maintained in 2017, but revised upwards for 2018 to 6.6%, given the expected increase in exports. In the rest of Asia, the economies are doing quite well too, with India in particular picking up, with growth for 2017 expected to by 6.7% before increasing to 7.4% in 2018, making it the country expected to grow the fastest in 2018. It is telling that this region accounts for over half of the world’s growth.  

In Latin America and the Caribbean, GDP growth has been revised upwards as well, expecting 1.3% now in 2017, and increasing to 1.9% in 2018.  Mexico leads the way in this region, as it benefits from expected increases in US demand, and Brazil’s economic recovery continues to firm up substantially. The biggest issue in the region is the continuing political uncertainty in Venezuela, which has seen further downward revisions in its forecasts. In the Commonwealth of Independent States (or Russia and the former USSR countries) conditions continue to improve, with growth in 2017 revised upwards to 2.2%, and forecasted to remain at 2.2% during 2018. This coincides with Russia emerging from its recession, with expected growth of 1.8% in 2017, and 1.7% in 2018. 

In developing Europe, growth has been drastically upgraded to 5.2% in 2017, and 4% in 2018, driven by a recovery in exports, led by Turkey which has adopted much more accommodative policies and Poland, which expects easier financial conditions and export demand from the euro area. In the Middle-East and North African region, however, growth remains subdued, with projections downgrading them to 2.5% for 2017, and only picking up to 3.6% in 2018. This is due to the fact that while oil prices may have recovered somewhat, there are still hard fiscal adjustments that need to be made before strong growth can once again prevail.

Finally, our own neck of the woods – sub-Saharan Africa. By now we have good comparisons with the rest of the world to show just how we’re doing. Well, the region as a whole has been upgraded to 2.7% growth in 2017, increasing to 3.3% in 2018. Nigeria saw a modest upgrade to 0.8% in 2017, but is expected to make a recovery in 2018, growing at 2.1%. South Africa, the region’s other large economy, is estimated to grow by 0.9% only in 2017, with the same projected in 2018. Given the recent changes in political leadership, we can expect that in a few months, as President Ramaphosa’s changes settle down and give South Africa some reprieve from the continual political uncertainty that hung like a cloud over its economy, these forecasts might improve.

So what does this mean for us? When we take a step back to see the whole world economy at a glance, we can see that no one economy is without its challenges. But we can also see that every recession has a solution, with quite a few countries pulling themselves up by their bootstraps. We’ve been blessed with quite a few years of exceptional growth, and it seems that 2017 can most likely be classified as a depression. We await with bated breaths the new budget speech, to see what our course forward will be. But I assure you, that if we work together, we can create a warm light for all mankind to share.

Mir: Sharing the World

Originally published in the Informanté newspaper on Thursday, 22 February, 2018.

Three weeks after the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, another mission was launched, though not by NASA. Authorized by a 1976 decree, it had its work halted in 1984 by another project, before being scheduled to launch in time for the 27^th Communist Party Congress in 1986. This mission was the Mir Space Station, launched by the Soviet Space Programme.

Designed to be an improvement of the Salyut space station, the Mir was designed for longer occupation and was derived from the Soyuz spacecraft. Named Mir, which can be literally translated as ‘peace’ or ‘world’, the word actually had a deeper connotation in Russian, being used to mean ‘sharing of resources.’ As such, in its native Russian, Mir meant ‘peaceful sharing of world resources.’ Quite apt, I think, for what it became.

On 19 February 1986, the Mir Core Module was launched, containing the main living quarters. The first astronauts stayed 51 days on-board, before leaving for the Salyut 7 space station for 51 days, gathering 400kg of scientific material and 20 instruments from that station, before returning for another 20 days, and then returning to Earth.

The second mission to Mir (launched 5 Feb 1987) was to attach the astrophysics module to the space station, which contained various telescopes and radiation detectors, as well as oxygen generators and carbon dioxide scrubbers. It had a troubled dock, when after an EVA it was found that a trash bag was stuck between the module and the station that prevented docking. This period saw three different crews on the station, with the first international visitors as well (from Syria, Afghanistan and France), before the station was once again left unoccupied on 27 April 1989.

The launch on 5 September 1989 would result in the longest human presence in space on the Mir, a record that was only surpassed afterwards by the ISS. It also added and augmentation module with an Extra-vehicular Activity (EVA) airlock, a cargo compartment with a backup airlock, and a water filtration system, water storage system and a shower. By 31 May 1990 it was further expanded with a technology module containing material processing furnaces and biotechnology experiments. And then, as it orbited far above the Earth, the Earth decided to interfere.

The tenth crew to launch to Mir launched from the USSR, as Soviet citizens, and returned as Russians. The Soviet Union had dissolved. Facing a financial crisis, the power and earth sensing modules were put into storage. But all was not lost – on 17 June 1992, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and US President George HW Bush announced the Shuttle-Mir programme, a co-operative venture where the US Space Shuttle would start docking with the Mir. This however, was still a few years off.

Life of Mir was very structured. Waking to at 8h00, they had two hours for breakfast and personal hygiene, then three hours of work, one hour exercise and one hour lunch. This was followed by three more hours of work and an hour of exercise, before having their evening meal, after which they were free. Because one of the effect of long-term weightlessness is muscle atrophy and deterioration of the skeleton, exercise was vital. Cosmonauts were expected to cycle the equivalent of 10km per day and run at least 5km per day on the provided equipment. Most food was frozen, refrigerated or canned, and prepared by a dietician. It provided 100g protein, 130g fat and 330g carbs per day, with additional mineral and vitamin supplements. Mostly the crew drank tea, coffee or fruit juice, but unlike the ISS, the Mir was provided with cognac and vodka for special occasions.

It was during the final stretch before the Shuttle-Mir programme became operational that Valeri Vladimirovich Polyakov set the record for the longest single stay in space, staying on board the Mir for 437 day and 18 hours (14 months), adding to his long stay during the second Mir mission of 240 days and 23 hours. He orbited the earth 7 075 times and travelled a total of 300 765 472 km around the planet, or about a light-second.

After the Shuttle-Mir programme launched in 1995, the power and earth sensing modules were finally added, alongside a docking module to enable easier docking with the space shuttle. The Shuttle-Mir programme would last for four years, and allow US astronauts to join their Russian cosmonaut comrades in gaining experience in long space missions. During this time, however, Mir began to show its age, with many malfunctions and incidents. Initially designed for only 5 years of operation, it had lived long past what it was designed for. 

With the lessons learned from Mir, a new, International Space Station was envisaged, and its first modules launched in 1998. In 1999, Roscosmos announced that it could not fund both the ISS and Mir, and opted to deorbit the station. Loaded up with extra propellant for its final orbit, the final crew departed Mir on 28 August 1999, just 8 days short of ten years of continuous occupation. The de-orbit finally occurred on 23 March 2001, entering the atmosphere above the Pacific near Nadi, Fiji. It is said that the light show was most spectacular. It had been in space for 15 years and 31 days, and orbited the Earth 86 331 times. In total 104 people from 12 countries visited the station.

Mir’s success is felt to this day, with the studies on long-term human occupation of space applied to the newer ISS, and resulted in the refinement of the Soyuz spacecraft into the most reliable launch vehicle in the world. With the retirement of the US Shuttle programme in 2011, the Soyuz has become the only launch vehicle to transport astronauts and cosmonauts to the International Space Station. So when you look up at night, and catch a glimpse of the ISS, spare a thought for its venerable predecessor, the humble Mir.

Be Still My Heart

Originally published in the Informanté newspaper on Thursday, 15 February, 2018.

There are numerous legends surrounding Valentine’s Day. Some say that St Valentine performed secret Christian weddings for the soldiers of Roman Emperor Claudius II, who supposedly believed married men made good soldiers. Others claim that St Valentine cut hearts from parchment to remind these soldiers of their vows. It is said that he was executed for this, and before his execution, he performed a miracle by curing his jailer’s daughter of blindness.

This, however, remains legend. Claudius II never forbade marriage among his soldiers, and in fact encouraged them to take wives for themselves after victory over the Goths. The Valentines honoured on February 14 are in fact Valentine of Rome and Valentine of Terni. Valentine of Rome was a priest who was martyred in 269 CE and sanctified to sainthood by Pope Galesius in 496 CE. Valentine of Terni was the bishop of Interamna and was martyred under Emperor Aurelian in 273 CE. The current General Roman Calendar does not even list Saint Valentine’s Day anymore, noting: “Though the memorial of Saint Valentine is ancient, it is left to particular calendars, since, apart from his name, nothing is known of Saint Valentine except that he was buried on the Via Flaminia on February 14.”

Until recently, Valentine’s Day was not even associated with romantic love. In Slovenia, Saint Valentine was the saint of spring, and patron of beekeepers and pilgrims. “Saint Valentine brings the keys of roots,” they said, as plants started to grow at the start of spring in the northern hemisphere. The day of love was traditionally 12 March, Saint Gregory’s day, or 22 February, Saint Vincent’s day, with the patron saint of love, Saint Anthony’s day falling on June 13. 

The first recorded association of Valentine’s Day with romantic love is actually by Geoffrey Chaucer, in his poem Parliament of Foules, written in 1382. "For this was on St. Valentine's Day, when every bird cometh there to choose his mate." The poem was written to honour the engagement of King Richard II to Anne of Bohemia, and readers naturally assumed he was referring to February 14, but some have noted that he might have been referring to the Feast Day of St Valentine of Genoa, which was celebrated on 3 May, as by that time birds have begun mating. Nevertheless, the connection stuck.

And so, Valentine’s Day grew to be associated with love via poets of the ages. The association with red roses also began the same way, with the earliest reference in Edmund Spenser’s The Faerie Queene in 1590 CE: “She bath'd with roses red, and violets blew, And all the sweetest flowres, that in the forrest grew.” The Cliché Valentine’s poem was written in its earliest form in Gammer Gurton’s Garland, back in 1784 CE, “The rose is red, the violet's blue, The honey's sweet, and so are you. Thou art my love and I am thine; I drew thee to my Valentine: The lot was cast and then I drew, And Fortune said it shou'd be you.”

Nowadays Valentine’s Day has become much more commercial, with the day even celebrated in corporations and schools. In fact, teachers are by far the people who receive the most Valentine’s every year. Worth over US$ 15 billion a year, it truly has become a modern-day commercial holiday. Yet something seems lost in the translation – people spend so much because they feel obligated to. And, in a way, perhaps because of that, they do not spend that much during the rest of the year. Instead of a celebration of the love we show during the year, we have instead begun to celebrate love ONLY during this one day of the year. 

Let me be clear – Valentine’s Day is an excellent way to remind you the love needs to be celebrated. Let it remind you every year that you NEED to celebrate love in any way you can, as often as you can, because it is the pinnacle of the brief existence that is our lives. Love is a reformer, a teacher, a source of motivation, a path to self-discovery, but perhaps most importantly, it is the connection to another human being in the most intimate way possible. And it is the only feeling that’ll allow you to one day say, oh, I don’t know, something like this:

“Hey, I've seen things you couldn't imagine, and done things I'd prefer you didn't. I don't exactly have a reputation for being a thinker; I follow my blood, which doesn't exactly rush in the direction of my brain. So I make a lot of mistakes. A lot of wrong bloody calls. A lot of years, and there's only one thing I've ever been sure of. YOU!

Hey, look at me. I'm not asking you for anything. When I say I love you, it's not because I want you, or because I can't have you - it has nothing to do with me. I love what you are, what you do, how you try. I've seen your kindness, and your strength, I've seen the best and the worst of you and I understand with perfect clarity exactly what you are. You're a hell of a woman. You're the one!” 

(With apologies to William the Bloody)