We here in Namibia are not quite as
familiar with the concept of a revolution as some other African countries. When
most of us hear the world revolution, we instinctively think of the revolutions
that has happened in other African countries – the change of leadership and the
violence that was associated with it. By contrast, we’ve been blessed with a
stable democracy, and sound political leadership. And yet, we are nevertheless
preparing for a revolution, albeit of a different kind.
In 1760, this revolution started in Europe.
Robert E. Lucas, Jr., and economist, noted that “for the first time in history,
the living standards of the masses of ordinary people have begun to undergo
sustained growth. Nothing remotely like this economic behaviour is mentioned by
the classical economists, even as a theoretical possibility.” The population
increased – the first period in history where both population and income per
capita increased. Production methods switched to machines, new chemical
manufacturing processes were pioneered, and iron production skyrocketed. Water
and steam power started to be used, and machine tools were developed. Factories
arose. This was a different kind of revolution. It was the Industrial
Revolution.
The Industrial Revolution precipitated the start
of per-capita economic growth for the first time in history, and as such, it
should be no surprise that Namibia wishes to emulate that. In fact, in 2012,
Namibia’s Minister of Trade and Industry, the Honourable Dr Hage Geingob,
unveiled Namibia’s Industrial policy. The document outlined the specific
principles, vision, aims and objectives that will guide Namibia’s
industrialisation efforts over the next two decades.
Namibia’s Industrial Policy is anchored in
Vision 2030, and thus, as a first principle, aims that the country’s manufacturing
and services sectors constitute about 80% of the country’s gross domestic
product (GDP), that the country largely exports processed goods, which account
for not less than 70% of total exports, that we have an established network of
modern infrastructure that includes railways, roads, telecommunications and
port facilities, and that Namibia has a critical mass of knowledge workers, and
the contribution of SMEs to GDP is not less than 30%, all by 2030.
The second principle is, of course,
macroeconomic stability, and the third economic openness – as a small country,
we need external markets. The policy outlines the need for a targeted approach,
given our relative lack of resources. But the government recognises that while
it has some role to play in Namibia’s industrialization, it knows that
industrial development can only be accomplished by partnering with the private
sector – with the citizens participating. Hence the focus on SME development in
the policy’s aims.
The policy, however, was just the
framework. Government’s more detailed plan was revealed by the next Minister of
Trade and Industry, the Honourable Minister Calle Schlettwein in Namibia’s
Execution Strategy for Industrialisation. Called ‘Growth at Home’, it focuses
on three strategic intervention areas, namely supporting value addition,
upgrading and diversification for sustained growth, securing market access at
home and abroad; and improving the investment climate and conditions.
Each of these areas, too, have specific
goals, but since this is an execution plan, it has a shorter time span. Thus,
for supporting value addition, by 2020 Namibia will have to achieve the
following: Manufacturing and services should account for more than 50 percent
of GDP, at least 10,000 new jobs have to be created in the manufacturing
sector, private sector investment has to benefit targeted sectors under Growth
at Home, and Namibia has to improve on the World Economic Forum Business Sophistication
Indicators, in particular on the sub-indicators “Nature of competitive advantage”
and “Production process sophistication”.
To secure market access at home and abroad,
the following needs to be achieved by 2020: The volume of locally produced
goods supplied to the public and retail sector has to be significantly
increased, Namibia's ranking in the “Trading across Borders” category of the
World Bank’s Doing Business Report has to improve by at least 5 ranks, the share
of manufacturing within total exports has to increase to at least 30 percent,
and Namibia has to improve on the United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development (UNCTAD) Export Diversification Index.
Finally, to improve the investment climate
and conditions, the following has to be achieved by 2020: Namibia has to be the
most competitive economy in the SADC region, according to the standards set by
the World Economic Forum, Investment climate surveys should show that
businesses feel that the climate and conditions in which they operate are more
conducive, in particular with respect to the availability of skilled labour and
access to land, and Namibia has to improve by at least 10 ranks in the
“Starting a Business Category” in the World Bank’s Doing Business Report.
With the Invest in Namibia International
Investment Conference just concluded, it appears we’re well on our way to
improve the investment climate and conditions, although we still have several
uphill battles ahead – our ease of doing business has not yet improved. The now
Ministry of Industrialization, Trade & SME Development’s Export Processing
Zones are already established, and is just looking for businesses to utilize
them – although our widening trade deficit shows just how much work still needs
to be done.
It is obvious that now-President Geingob
still has his Industrial Policy in the back of his head – the renaming of the
Ministry of Trade and Industry certainly echoes that policy. The Harambee
Prosperity Plan of the President certainly contains some shades of the
Industrialization Policy, and, I would argue, requires it to proceed. If we
want a revolution, this appears to be the one we’re primed for. What is now
required, however, cannot come from government – it should come from us, the
citizen-entrepreneurs and the private sector. The road ahead has been mapped –
we only need to gather the courage to follow it. Viva la Revolution Industrial!
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