Up This Creek Without A Paddle

Originally published in the Informanté newspaper on Thursday, 27 September, 2018.

Every few months, Statistician-General Alex Shimuafeni and the Namibia Statistics Agency release the newest quarterly GDP figures, and we find ourselves examining of our economic performance, and seeing precisely how far up this creek we are without a paddle. With eight quarters of negative GDP growth behind us, the ninth held no suprises – the Namibian economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of the year. 

Let’s see what this neck of the creek holds for us by examining the first quarter GDP report. Starting with inflation, in this quarter it was only 3.8%, down from the 6.3% recorded during the same time in 2017. The lower inflation was due to decreases in inflation for housing, clothing and footwear and communications. Inflation has finally been maintained below 5% for two quarters, the first time since 2015.

Next, let’s have a look at the different sectors of the Namibian economy. The Agriculture and Forestry sector showed a contraction of 1.1% compared to 20.9% growth for the same time last year. With crop farming easing to 10.7% growth from 27.9% compared to the prior year, and the livestock subsector contracting by 6.9% compared to growth of 20.5% last year this quarter, it becomes abundantly clear that despite a passable rainy season, farmers decided to restock their dwindling inventories instead of marketing their products. As such cattle exports to abattoirs declined by 10.4%, while cattle exported live to South Africa and Angola similarly contracted by 22.6%. The Fishing sector also found itself with a decline of 8% compared to a decline of 4% last year, mainly as a result of rising fuel costs and a decline in fish landings. 

Mining and Quarrying, however, showed growth since the start of the year, with growth of 22.4% compared to 19.6% during the same time last year. The highlight here was the uranium and diamond subsectors, which showed growth of 62.3% and 30.5% respectively. In both sectors this can be attributed to greater production, both in carats produced, as well as the new uranium mine that came on board. Unfortunately zinc and gold production contracted by 3.1% and 21.6% respectively. 

The Manufacturing sector unfortunately slowed down during the second quarter of the year, recording a contraction of 12.5% compared to growth of 9.8% during the same time last year. This is the results of a 26% decline in value added in the non-metallic minerals subsector, as well as a decline of 33.3% in the non-ferrous metals subsector. Other subsectors, such as fabricated metals, meat processing and beverages recorded declines of 33.8%, 12.2% and 12.9% respectively. The Electricity and Water sector at least showed positive signs, growing by 16.7%. This is due to the electricity subsector growing by 17.5%, compared to growth of 12.5% last year. The main reason for this is the surge of locally generated electricity from Ruacana Hydro power station that reduced the need for electricity imports. 

But after two years of contractions, the Construction sector has sustained positive growth! And quite strong growth as well – 23.8%! This strong growth is the results of value of buildings completed increasing by 4.9%.  Government expenditure on construction declined by 21.5%, however compared to last year government expenditure on construction that declined by 68.1%, this is considered a significant recovery. 

Wholesale and retail trade, however, continued to feel the effect of negative economic headwinds, contracting by 5.8% during the second quarter, though it is up from the 11.4% contraction recorded last year. Hotels and Restaurants found itself stuck with its reversing fortunes, as it recorded a decline of 2.6% this quarter compared to a decline of 2.6% last year. 

The Transport and Communication sector at least remained in positive territory, with growth of 1.9% compared to last year’s 2.5% growth. The Financial Intermediation sector continued its slow growth, growing with 0.5% compared to last year’s 3.6%, with the banking subsector contributing 0.1% growth and the insurance subsector contributing 1%. Finally, the Public Administration, Defence, Education and Health sectors still shows the effect of government consolidation, with Public Administration and Defence growing by 1.2%, with Education contracting by 6.2% and Health by 4.9%.


Wounded sailors during the time of Admiral Horatio Nelson were transported up Haslar Creek in Portsmouth, to be taken to the Royal Naval Hospital to either recover or die. The ships moored, and wounded soldiers were transported up via tramline, or ‘without a paddle.’  They were held prisoner so they would not desert while being treated, but some tried to by going through the sewers to the salt Haslar Creek (where we also get the other origin, ‘up shite creek’). Without a paddle, however, this would merely result in the men being stuck, trapped and helpless.

Well, after examining that data, it would appear that Namibia herself is wounded, and badly so. For the past two years, we’ve been transported to our own hospital, up the salted creek, and we neglected to take any paddles. We cannot desert, as we have no paddles, and as Namibians we cannot afford to. But like the soldiers in Nelson’s navy, we have but two choices – recover or die. We truly are up this creek now, and we’ve run out of options.

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