Every few months, Statistician-General Alex
Shimuafeni and the Namibia Statistics Agency release the newest quarterly GDP
figures, and we find ourselves examining of our economic performance, and
seeing precisely how far up this creek we are without a paddle. With eight
quarters of negative GDP growth behind us, the ninth held no suprises – the Namibian
economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter of the year.
Let’s see what this neck of the creek holds
for us by examining the first quarter GDP report. Starting with inflation, in
this quarter it was only 3.8%, down from the 6.3% recorded during the same time
in 2017. The lower inflation was due to decreases in inflation for housing,
clothing and footwear and communications. Inflation has finally been maintained
below 5% for two quarters, the first time since 2015.
Next, let’s have a look at the different
sectors of the Namibian economy. The Agriculture and Forestry sector showed a
contraction of 1.1% compared to 20.9% growth for the same time last year. With
crop farming easing to 10.7% growth from 27.9% compared to the prior year, and
the livestock subsector contracting by 6.9% compared to growth of 20.5% last
year this quarter, it becomes abundantly clear that despite a passable rainy
season, farmers decided to restock their dwindling inventories instead of
marketing their products. As such cattle exports to abattoirs declined by
10.4%, while cattle exported live to South Africa and Angola similarly
contracted by 22.6%. The Fishing sector also found itself with a decline of 8%
compared to a decline of 4% last year, mainly as a result of rising fuel costs
and a decline in fish landings.
Mining and Quarrying, however, showed
growth since the start of the year, with growth of 22.4% compared to 19.6%
during the same time last year. The highlight here was the uranium and diamond subsectors,
which showed growth of 62.3% and 30.5% respectively. In both sectors this can
be attributed to greater production, both in carats produced, as well as the
new uranium mine that came on board. Unfortunately zinc and gold production
contracted by 3.1% and 21.6% respectively.
The Manufacturing sector unfortunately
slowed down during the second quarter of the year, recording a contraction of
12.5% compared to growth of 9.8% during the same time last year. This is the
results of a 26% decline in value added in the non-metallic minerals subsector,
as well as a decline of 33.3% in the non-ferrous metals subsector. Other
subsectors, such as fabricated metals, meat processing and beverages recorded declines
of 33.8%, 12.2% and 12.9% respectively. The Electricity and Water sector at
least showed positive signs, growing by 16.7%. This is due to the electricity subsector
growing by 17.5%, compared to growth of 12.5% last year. The main reason for
this is the surge of locally generated electricity from Ruacana Hydro power
station that reduced the need for electricity imports.
But after two years of contractions, the
Construction sector has sustained positive growth! And quite strong growth as
well – 23.8%! This strong growth is the results of value of buildings completed
increasing by 4.9%. Government
expenditure on construction declined by 21.5%, however compared to last year government
expenditure on construction that declined by 68.1%, this is considered a
significant recovery.
Wholesale and retail trade, however, continued
to feel the effect of negative economic headwinds, contracting by 5.8% during
the second quarter, though it is up from the 11.4% contraction recorded last
year. Hotels and Restaurants found itself stuck with its reversing fortunes, as
it recorded a decline of 2.6% this quarter compared to a decline of 2.6% last
year.
The Transport and Communication sector at
least remained in positive territory, with growth of 1.9% compared to last
year’s 2.5% growth. The Financial Intermediation sector continued its slow
growth, growing with 0.5% compared to last year’s 3.6%, with the banking
subsector contributing 0.1% growth and the insurance subsector contributing 1%.
Finally, the Public Administration, Defence, Education and Health sectors still
shows the effect of government consolidation, with Public Administration and
Defence growing by 1.2%, with Education contracting by 6.2% and Health by 4.9%.
Wounded sailors during the time of Admiral
Horatio Nelson were transported up Haslar Creek in Portsmouth, to be taken to
the Royal Naval Hospital to either recover or die. The ships moored, and
wounded soldiers were transported up via tramline, or ‘without a paddle.’ They were held prisoner so they would not
desert while being treated, but some tried to by going through the sewers to
the salt Haslar Creek (where we also get the other origin, ‘up shite creek’).
Without a paddle, however, this would merely result in the men being stuck,
trapped and helpless.
Well, after examining that data, it would
appear that Namibia herself is wounded, and badly so. For the past two years, we’ve
been transported to our own hospital, up the salted creek, and we neglected to
take any paddles. We cannot desert, as we have no paddles, and as Namibians we
cannot afford to. But like the soldiers in Nelson’s navy, we have but two
choices – recover or die. We truly are up this creek now, and we’ve run out of
options.
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